IMF Slashes Growth Forecasts [ May 14th, 2009 ] Posted in » Forex News

Forex news continues to be predictably grim. Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its growth forecast for every major country and predicted that the global economy will contract 1.3% this year, although the IMF did issue a sliver of hope that it would grow 1.9% next year, depending on the state of the financial system. Until then, however, forex trading is expected to remain volatile.

The U.S., which the IMF said is at the epicenter of the crisis, is expected to contract 2.8% this year, and recovery is unlikely until 2010. However, the U.S. recession may ease before the Eurozone recession due to earlier distribution of stimulus funds and the U.S. government’s aggressive actions to restore liquidity. In comparison, the Eurozone economy is expected to contract 4.2% this year and another 0.4% next year, signaling the need for EU countries to coordinate a comprehensive, collective response to the crisis.

For the euro, August is the cruelest month

It’s been a volatile year for those who engage in online trading of the EUR/USD. In 2007, the dollar fell off as much as 13% against the euro. Until this month, it looked like 2008 would also be a banner year for the Eurozone’s currency. The euro surged above $1.60 in both April and July forex trading, hitting an all-time high of $1.6038 on July 15th. But based on the vicious beating that the euro has taken in August, T.S. Eliot’s assertion that “April is the cruelest month” might need to be reconsidered. On August 8th, the euro dropped below $1.50 for the first time since February and below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2006. As of this writing, EUR/USD is hovering around $1.4673.

Many forex analysts anticipate that the remainder of 2008 will see the euro continue to decline against the dollar. On August 7th, in a statement that at least indirectly led to the next day’s online forex trading debacle, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet opined that the third quarter would be “particularly weak” for Eurozone GDP growth. As the recession that grips the U.S. spreads beyond its borders, the dollar is likely to strengthen, further challenging the dominant EUR/USD trend of the past years.

More EUR/USD-related forex news to follow…

August 27th, 2008 | Comments Off

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