Dawn Meson

IMF Slashes Growth Forecasts

Forex news continues to be predictably grim. Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its growth forecast for every major country and predicted that the global economy will contract 1.3% this year, although the IMF did issue a sliver of hope that it would grow 1.9% next year, depending on the state of the financial system. Until then, however, forex trading is expected to remain volatile.

The U.S., which the IMF said is at the epicenter of the crisis, is expected to contract 2.8% this year, and recovery is unlikely until 2010. However, the U.S. recession may ease before the Eurozone recession due to earlier distribution of stimulus funds and the U.S. government’s aggressive actions to restore liquidity. In comparison, the Eurozone economy is expected to contract 4.2% this year and another 0.4% next year, signaling the need for EU countries to coordinate a comprehensive, collective response to the crisis.

Analyst: “The Dollar is No Longer as Good as Gold”

Earlier this month, an AP article painted a bleak picture of the dollar’s current and future status as the world’s reserve currency and the most powerful currency in online forex. The proliferation of stimulus efforts has left analysts worried about both the U.S.’ ability to control its ballooning deficits and the greenback’s position in relation to those debts. Both Russian and Chinese officials have intimated that it might be time to start evaluating alternatives for the world’s forex reserves in case the dollar implodes.
Peter Schiff, president of the Euro Pacific Capital brokerage, told the AP, “I think the dollar will continue to drop. Based on what we’ve done, it could lose 70% to 80% of its value over the next five to 10 years. The dollar is no longer as good as gold. It’s no longer better than any other currency.”

Others disagree, saying that the Obama administration’s efforts have helped the dollar maintain relative strength against the euro, yen, pound, and other currencies. Or, at the very least, the dollar’s proponents contend, the dollar isn’t in danger of slipping anytime soon. "I liken the dollar to an aging boxing champ in terms of being a reserve currency," said executive director of The Economic Outlook Group Bernard Baumohl.  He told the AP, "It survives because there’s no other contender out there."

First In, First Out for U.S. Economy

That’s the conclusion reached by this GFT Forex Blog post. The author says that as the first G7 economy to enter recession, back in 2007, the U.S. will also be the first to make a full recovery. The author continues, “The other way to look at the current economic situation is that if the U.S. economy does not recover, no one else will. Globalization has increased the mutual dependency of many countries. For export dependent countries in the Eurozone and Asia, a rebound in U.S. demand is essential for a recovery.”

That thinking is likely at the root of the dollar’s perennial status as a forex trading safe haven.  Even though there are periods when it’s seen as riskier than other currencies, traders keep coming back to the USD for safe (well, safer) online trading. However, will the USD maintain its strength when the global economy stabilizes? The author says that recovery will lead to “a new shift toward fundamentals” and a resulting focus on the large amount of U.S. government debt.

Economists have predicted that recovery could begin as early as 2010, so in the next few months, it’ll be interesting to track the USD and see if the “first in, first out” phenomenon also means that the USD is the first one to lose some of the spoils of the recession.  

Consumer Confidence at All-Time Low

The January plunge in consumer confidence to touch an all-time low of 37.7 sparked a rally for the USD in online trading, although GFT Director of Currency Research Kathy Lien called the trend a “reflection of more panic selling and not optimism about US economy.” She cautioned that confidence may not be restored until job security is no longer an issue—but with unemployment spiking to 7.2% and most analysts predicting that recovery will not be possible until 2010 at the very earliest, increased consumer confidence may be very far off indeed. In the meantime, any dollar gains in online forex trading are expected to be ultimately insubstantial.

Given the dreary consumer outlook, it’s not surprising that fourth-quarter GDP also fell to the weakest level in 26 years and house prices dove another 18.18% in November for the largest recorded decline. The sole bright spot, according to Lien, is the projected increase in car sales in the next six months as consumers look to capitalize on the discounts being offered to move inventory.

Recession Outlook Grim

Most analysts agree that the dollar’s rally in online forex trading throughout the fall was bound to be ephemeral, and with 2009 underway, the EUR/USD climb back upwards has begun. In December 2008, the dollar was up almost 20% against a basket of currencies, but since then, the weakening forex trend has taken hold as the economy continues to worsen on rising unemployment numbers that reached a 26-year high last month, a still-soft home market, volatile stocks, and the increased risk of deflation.

A UCLA Anderson Forecast report in mid-December said that although crude oil prices have dropped dramatically, the resultant fall in the absolute level of consumer prices is likely to do damage to the GDP in the next three quarters, causing it to shrink by 4.1%, 3.4%, and 0.8% respectively. The report also predicts that spike in unemployment will continue through 2009, hitting a projected 8.5% in December 2009.

Rate cuts halt EUR/USD fall

Over the past few days, the euro has finally broken out of its weeks-long slump against the dollar. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced on Tuesday that the Fed would be taking the unprecedented act of buying three-month commercial paper, and today, central banks around the world made coordinated reductions in the target lending rate. Anticipating an easing of the credit squeeze that has driven the dollar’s recent rise against the euro, traders sold USD and bought EUR in today’s online trading. As of 4PM EST, the euro had made its biggest gain against the dollar in more than two weeks, moving from 1.3585 yesterday to 1.3658.

A strong week for USD

Based on the price movement of EUR/USD over the past week, one could say that it’s been a strong one for the U.S. dollar. From a high of $1.47669 on September 25, EUR/USD has fallen to $1.40082 as of this afternoon. The past seven days of online forex trading have even featured the euro’s greatest one-day decline against the dollar. But there’s little to cheer about in the U.S. economic outlook, and EUR/USD moves have been driven far more by Eurozone bank failures and the reluctance of U.S. banks to lend, which has tightened up the dollar supply. This week, the European Central Bank has offered one-day loans of 30 and 50 billion dollars to help maintain interbank liquidity while calling for banks to turn in surplus euros at a rate of 4.25%.

It’s difficult to forecast how the passage or rejection of the revised bailout plan is likely to affect EUR/USD. The premature announcement last week of a “fundamental agreement” actually saw the euro gain against the dollar in that afternoon’s immediate forex trading. Though a failure by the government to intervene will likely damage both the dollar and the economy, the addition of hundreds of billions of dollars to the U.S. deficit could also have a deleterious long-term impact on the dollar’s position in the forex trade market. For now, it looks like a lose-lose situation for USD, notwithstanding the woeful economic news coming out of the Eurozone.

A “buying opportunity” for EUR/USD?

The dollar experienced a temporary surge against the euro early today as online forex traders anticipated an announcement that Congress had reached an agreement on the proposed bailout of Wall Street. EUR/USD had moved as low as $1.45599 before Sen. Christopher Dodd, chairman of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, announced this afternoon that a “fundamental agreement” had indeed been reached. The reaction from the forex trading community was markedly ambivalent, especially in contrast to the stock market, where the Dow Jones had added just about 200 points as of nearly 3PM in New York; EUR/USD currently stands at $1.46150 and has moved primarily upward throughout the afternoon.

Click on image to enlarge.

As the ten-year chart above reveals, the past several months of EUR/USD price activity have been historically aberrant. Yet despite some worrying economic news and the likely impact of the bailout on the federal budget deficit, most currency trading analysts are either neutral or bullish on the greenback. FX Street’s Analysts Sentiment Index for EUR/USD shows 50% neutral, 33% bullish, and only 17% bearish. Daily FX likewise reports “effectively neutral speculative positioning” at this time.

However, Bloomberg has been reporting this week on some forex analysts who are emitting very distinct growls. On Tuesday, TD Securities economist Joshua Williamson said that U.S. deficit issues could push the dollar up to $1.95 per euro. And today, a research note from Citigroup called the current euro price dip a “buying opportunity.” The euro could move up to $1.53, according to the Citigroup report.

EUR/USD down over 2.1%

In today’s forex trading, the U.S. dollar suffered one of its biggest ever one-day losses against the euro on fears that the $700-billion bailout plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will further exacerbate the growing federal budget deficit. EUR/USD stood at $1.4794 as of 6:41 EST, up from $1.4466 yesterday. Percentage-wise, the dollar was down over 2.1% according to Reuters Dealing, the largest one-day drop for the greenback since January of 2001. Since reaching a high of $1.3882 on September 11, the dollar has fallen more than 6% against the euro.

Mood Swings for EUR/USD

This has officially been the most volatile week for the global currency trading market since the Asian financial crisis of the late ‘90s. Interday trading of EUR/USD went through significant swings as the dollar gained ground on word that the U.S. Federal Reserve had chosen not to change interest rates, only to plummet against the euro on the shocking news that the federal government was rescuing American International Group with an $85 billion loan. The Bank of Japan’s decision to hold interests rates at their current level of 0.50% also contributed to the dollar’s decline in today’s online trading. EUR/USD moved from 1.4121 yesterday to 1.4348 as of 4:18PM EST today.

Looking ahead, a bearish interest rate environment for the euro suggests that the dollar may actually gain ground despite perilous conditions in the U.S. financial market. A survey released today by Bloomberg also found forex analysts to be optimistic about the dollar, which they expect to benefit from a slowdown in European economic growth.